Fed vows to keep rates near zero until inflation tops 2%, likely keeping meager rates 4 to 5 years

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Paul Davison USA Today Published 2:00 pm ET Sep 16, 2020 Updated 5:17pm ET Sep 16, 2020

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it will likely keep its key interest rate near zero until the economy reaches full employment and inflation runs “moderately” above its 2% goal for “some time,” a vow that economists say is likely to keep rates at rock bottom for the next four to five years.

The central bank made the market-friendly commitment sooner than many top economists anticipated and it drove the Dow more than 150 points higher before the market gave back the gains on persistent tech stock jitters. .

The Fed’s assertion is consistent with its new policy framework unveiled last month, which states that officials will no longer preemptively raise rates as unemployment falls to head off a potential spike in inflation. Rather, the Fed will allow inflation to edge above 2% for a time to make up for years of persistently low inflation and to bolster job gains.

The Fed plans to keep its benchmark short-term rate near zero until “labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time,” the Fed said in a statement after a two-day meeting.”

That, the central bank said, will help ensure inflation averages 2% “over time” and the public cam reliably expect 2% price increases. 

“These are powerful commitments that we think will support the full recovery as long s it takes,” Chairman Jerome Powell said at a news conference.

Previously, the Fed said it would maintain near-zero rates “until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

The U.S. economy has partially recovered from the coronavirus recession more rapidly than expected, but the Federal Reserve envisions a slog the rest of the way.Get the Coronavirus Watch newsletter in your inbox.

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“The labor market is recovering but it’s a long way — a long way — from maximum employment,” Powell said.

Besides keeping its benchmark rate near zero, new Fed forecasts indicate it likely will stay there at least through 2023, based on policymakers’ median estimate. That’s a year longer than its previous estimate since the Fed’s forecast horizon was extended. But the promise to keep rates near zero until inflation picks up should maintain rock-bottom rates until mid-2024 or possibly longer, says economist Kathy Bostjancic of Oxford Economics. 

The Fed now predicts the economy will contract by 3.7% this year, below its 6.5% estimate in June, and the 8.4% unemployment rate will fall to 7.6% by year-end. The Fed previously reckoned the jobless rate would end 2020 at 9.3%.

Yet the economy may be at a crossroads. States are allowing shuttered businesses to reopen, putting furloughed employees back to work and boosting growth. But Congress is deadlocked over a new stimulus to restore enhanced federal unemployment benefits and keep struggling small businesses afloat. The number of permanently laid off workers and bankrupt businesses is rising. And the specter of a second wave of the virus this fall looms.   

A look at the Fed’s views on:

Interest rates

All 17 Fed policymakers prefer no hikes from the near-zero federal funds rate through next year and the median projection is for no increases through 2023. But one official believes a quarter-point rate increase will be warranted in 2022 and four think the first move should come in 2023.

Bond purchases

The Fed said its massive bond purchases are now designed partly to juice the economy by lowering long-term interest rates, such as for mortgages, as well as ensure that markets run smoothly. Previously, the Fed said the purchases — of $120 billion a month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities — were aimed at reviving markets for those assets that virtually came to a halt early in the crisis.

The change eventually could pave the way for the Fed to buy bonds with longer-term maturities to more effectively push down long-term rates.

The economy

Fed officials predict the economy will shrink 3.7% this year, less than their 6.5% forecast in June. But they forecast growth of 4% in 2021, down from their prior 5% estimate, and 3% in 2022.

Gross domestic product plunged at a record 31.7% annual rate in the second quarter, a bit better than the initial 32.9% forecast.

The economy has bounced back faster than expected, largely as a result of stronger consumer spending, Goldman Sachs says. While COVID-19 surges in the South and West led some states to pause or reverse reopening plans, hospitalizations and death tolls have improved recently. IHS Market predicts growth of about 30% in the current quarter.

But Barclays says the recovery is likely to slow in the months ahead, in part because a snap-back in auto production to pre-pandemic levels has played out. Powell noted that many laid-off workers have stopped looking for jobs.

Jobs

Unemployment is projected to fall from the current 8.4% to 7.6% by the end of the year, 5.5% by the end of 2021 and 4.6% by the end of 2022, according Fed officials’ median estimate.

The economy has regained nearly half the 22 million jobs lost in the early days of the pandemic as businesses have reopen but economists say recouping the remainder will be tougher. The number of workers permanently laid off jumped from 2.9 million to 3.4 million in August, indicating some temporary layoffs have become permanent.

Of the 11 million idled workers who have not been called back or found new jobs, Powell said, “Our commitment is not to forget those people.”

Inflation

The Fed estimated its preferred measure of annual inflation will close out 2020 at 1.2%, up from its 0.8% forecast in June, before rising to 1.7% in 2021. A core measure that strips out volatile food and energy items is projected to end the year at 1.5%, above officials’ previous 1% prediction.

Inflation has picked up recently, chiefly because of a surge in used car prices and a partial rebound in apparel prices and air fares that were depressed by the effects of the pandemic.

Even before the crisis, inflation was held down for years by discounted online prices and the globally connected marketplace.  The Fed’s new policy framework aims to juice inflation but economists say there’s no guarantee it will work.

 While modest price increases are generally a good thing, persistently low inflation can lead to deflation, or falling prices, that prompts shoppers to put off purchases.

Curious about buying or selling a home in today’s market? Give us a call and let’s chat! Jennifer and Kevin Hanley, REALTORS The Hanley Home Team of Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners Southside http://www.HanleyHomeTeam.com

When Should You Stop Renting and Buy Your 1st Home?

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This choice often comes down to a financial decision: Can you afford what you want? But that’s not the whole story. There are more things to think about when trying to decide if it’s time to take your first real estate plunge.

Cost-Benefit Analysis is the term for figuring out if something is worthwhile doing or not. When you analyze a situation and decide that the benefits are greater than the cost, then you may want to go forward. Conversely, if the cost exceeds the benefits, you may decide to wait.

Sometimes when you weigh the benefits against the cost, the benefits are higher, but not high enough. In that case, you might want to increase the benefits or lower the cost before taking action. These are exactly the thoughts you should be having as you plan to buy your first home.

To help you weigh the benefits and costs of buying vs. renting, this report offers key elements to think through, including evaluating the monthly payments correctly, estimating home ownership costs, weighing location against price, evaluating purpose and home investment strategy, and improving credit and interest rate to decrease payments. 

The most important factor when thinking about buying is to not “panic buy.” Don’t jump in just because interest rates might rise or prices might rise. Buy when you are ready and don’t let the market dictate your timing.

What are the benefits of renting? 

• One benefit is living in a property without having to spend great chunks of money to replace the roof or fix the plumbing. 
• Another benefit is that you may be able to rent a type of home or in a location that you could never afford to buy. 
• You have no stress or worry about maintenance. That’s the landlord’s job.
• You can pick up and move without wondering if you can sell your house. 
• If your income drops, you can rent somewhere less expensive. It’s a pain to move, but you won’t face a foreclosure or fire sale. 
• If you are late with a payment, you can discuss it with the landlord. 
• You probably won’t get a serious ding on your credit if you’re a month late. 
• In many places, renting is the only option because there isn’t enough housing for sale, or the prices are beyond reach for the average mortal.

What are the costs of renting? 

The landlord charges you X amount and as long as you pay that amount, you get to live in that property. The cost is X. But there are other costs:

• By renting, you lose the opportunity to build equity (the money you gain if you sell the property). So when you move, you move with no money in your pocket.
• You lose the opportunity to pay off the house and eventually own it outright.
• You lose the opportunity to put down permanent roots, do what you like to the property, and raise capital by getting a second mortgage or home equity loan.

What are the benefits of owning?

• Build equity through rising values and making payments. 
• Pay off the home and eventually have the security of owning outright. 
• Be able to increase your wealth…by selling and profiting, by renting it to someone else, or by getting a home equity line to use the money in some other way.
• Put down deep roots in the house and community.
• Do what you want to the house…paint it orange and pink if you want (as long as you don’t live in a Planned Community or Condominium).

What are the costs of owning?

• Monthly fixed and variable maintenance costs are significantly higher than renting.
• Interest on your mortgage loan (which may be a tax deduction, so that may actually be a benefit)
• Time involved in maintaining a home that would not be involved when renting.
• Possible falling values making it harder to sell when you want to. 
• Inability to work with the loan holder when you’re late with a payment.
• Possibly higher monthly payments than would be with renting.
• Possibly not being able to live in the community you want because you can’t afford to buy there.

Compare Costs and Benefits 

Here are several questions that will help you decide if it’s time to buy, or if you should keep renting.

What can you REALLY afford to pay each month?

Let’s look at an example. (This example uses US$.)

• Suppose you feel that you can afford to comfortably pay $1,500/mo. in a mortgage payment. 
• Now, imagine putting aside a little each month to pay for maintenance and improvement projects (painting, new roof, new kitchen, emergencies, etc). Let’s say 10% per month for homes in decent condition. That’s $150/month, based on your $1,500 comfort level.
• Now, instead of paying $1,500/mo, you’re really looking at paying $1,500 + $150 = $1,650. Can you afford $1,650? If not, then you need to be looking at a monthly mortgage closer to $1,350.
• That small difference in monthly payment can mean a difference of $30,000 in your purchase price, so it is important to calculate maintenance costs before buying. 

If you don’t include maintenance costs up front, then the costs will come from somewhere else after you buy—your vacation budget, your new car budget, etc. You could become what’s known as “house poor,” a term that means you have a house, but a lower quality lifestyle.

So before you buy, try to look at you monthly payments realistically, inclusive of your lifestyle goals.

What mortgage would you qualify for?

You may feel comfortable paying $1,500/mo, but the important question is ‘What loan amount will that qualify you for?’

Several factors go into determining what the lender will decide you can pay and what you can buy:

• Your loan amount is based on your income, debt, and interest rate.
• Your interest rate is determined based on your credit rating—which is based on your history of paying your debts, as well as the amount of overall debt you carry.
• The interest rate you are given may mean a $20,000  to $40,000 difference in the price of home you can buy. 

So, although you feel comfortable paying, say $1,500/mo, the mortgage lender might say that based on your income, debt, and credit score, you really are more comfortable paying $1,400/mo.

And that means, instead of getting a mortgage for $239,000, you can only get a mortgage of $219,000.

So work with your mortgage professional, and go through the entire loan application process. Fill out the loan application. Provide the documentation. Yes, it’s arduous. But it’s the only way to get accurate figures, and get the coveted “pre-approval letter” that you need when buying a home.

Why do you really want to own a home?

Here are your choices: 1. Financial reasons.  2. Pride and roots reasons. Of course, it’s both for most people. As a first time buyer, you’re aware that ownership has financial benefits. And you also want to live in a place you love and put down roots.

 Unfortunately, for many home buyers, the price of a home in their desired location is too high for them. That means that first time buyers need to focus on the first choice: buying for financial reasons. 

Look at lower cost alternatives that allow you to build equity and eventually buy up into the area you want to put down roots. Here are a few ideas for first time buyers to make their first home a smart investment:

• Buy a much smaller home or condominium near the
  area you want to live.
• Buy a fixer-upper near where you want to live.
• Buy a home in an area you don’t want to live. After a few years, decide to either keep it, and put a renter in it, perhaps using the equity to buy another home, or sell it and use the cash to move up.

Each choice has its own costs and benefits. With each choice, the goal is to increase equity so that you can sell and have a larger cash down payment on a home in your preferred location. Create a long-range plan. Then work towards that goal by increasing savings, building equity, and improving your income. And always, always work on reducing debt.

Is your rent low enough?

If you’re paying $1,000/mo in a $3,500/mo area, and you have a good landlord, maybe you’re better off investing in other things instead of buying a home. Or perhaps buying an investment home in a cheaper area. It is OK to not own the home you live in, if it makes financial and emotional sense not to. 

But be smart about it. Do the analysis. There are many factors involved in home ownership that may benefit you, such as rising values, interest rate deductions, and the potential to control an asset.

Using a Mortgage Calculator

Mortgage calculators should be used as guidelines only, as just another data point. Once you’re really serious about buying, the only truly accurate way to know what you can afford and what your payments will be is to go through a full pre-approval process with a mortgage professional. 

But until then, mortgage calculators can be a useful tool to help you see how adjustments in down payment, interest rate, and income can affect purchase power.  Just be dead sure that the estimate you get is includes Principle, Interest, Taxes, Insurance, and Extras charged on the loan, such as Private Mortgage Insurance. If you leave out any of these costs, you will be surprised when your mortgage professional shows you a figure lower than you thought.

 Calculators come in several varieties. Here are four calculator suggestions you can look up on Google. Use a calculator designed for your country.

1. House Price, Based on Payment

2. Payment, Based on House Price

3. Payment, Based on Income

4. Rent vs. Buy

Final word

As a first time buyer, you are swept up in the excitement of buying—the dream of owning. You look at homes online and imagine putting in your own garden, painting the baby’s room, and decorating the way you want. 

But you are smart. You know you’re making a financial decision, not simply an emotional one. You know the factors that go into deciding when to stop renting and buy a first home are complex.

There are no simple answers. But we’d like to leave you with this final word:

Don’t let fear of buying stop you from buying a home. There are plenty of professionals out there who can guide you through this decision and help you make a sound financial choice. If not me, then find a real estate consultant you trust to sit down with you and discuss the ideas presented in this report. Work with a mortgage professional to get accurate figures. 

We want you to know that I’m always available to you—or your friends and family—for a home buying consultation. And we want you to know that we’ll spend whatever time you need to answer your questions so you can make the right decision in your own time.

 Call to arrange a consultation appointment – Simply call 904-515-2479 OR email Team@HanleyHomeTeam.com Thank you! Kevin and Jennifer Hanley, REALTORS Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners Southside

Townhouse vs. Condo, which should you buy?

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Photo by Sam Johnson 

Whether it’s your first time buying or you just want to purchase something smaller, townhouses and condos are both great options. Check out the differences between the two to help aid you in your search!

Condominiums

Condominiums are similar to apartments in that you purchase an individual unit inside of a larger building, but not the property it sits on. This generally includes access to the building’s amenities, such as the clubhouse, pool, and gym. However, condo owners are not responsible for the upkeep and repair of these common areas. Because of the number of shared spaces, living in a condo often allows for meeting new people and building a strong sense of community. There is a fairly similar vetting process for loan approval as for a full-sized home; however, the lender will also look at the health of the condo association.

Townhouses

Those who purchase a townhome are generally purchasing the complete unit, both inside and out, including the land it sits on. This might also include the driveway, yard, or roof. Traditionally, these units are two- or three-stories tall and may also include common areas like pools and parks. Townhome owners pay a fee to a homeowners association every month and the loan process is the same as buying a full-sized home.

Which is the best choice?

Both townhomes and condos offer less maintenance than a traditional home and generally offer great shared areas. Your decision ultimately comes down to you and your family’s needs and wants. Things you’ll want to take into consideration include location, lifestyle, family growth, and price.

Give us a call today; we are happy to lead you in the right direction.

Kevin and Jennifer Hanley, REALTORS Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners Southside 904-515-2479 http://www.HanleyHomeTeam.com

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An Increasing Surge of Wire Scams & Frauds Across the Real Estate Industry: How can you Protect yourself?

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Photo by Vladislav Reshetnyak on Pexels.com

The lucrative nature of real estate investments and transactions makes them vulnerable to the risk of fraud, robbery, phishing and cybercrimes. As opposed to bank robberies and burglaries, wire net frauds and cyber robberies don’t have a limit to the amount of money that can be looted. 

Wire fraud in the real estate industry appears to be the fastest growing amongst all cybercrimes prevalent across the US. In 2017, the authorities reported losses more than $1.4 billion while complaints were registered by 301,580 individuals and firms. Moreover, statistics reveal that more than 9,600 investors and renters were looted of $56 million in the real estate industry last year. 

So, how does a real estate fraud actually occur? 

Basically, the fraudsters and crooks conduct fake real estate transactions by adopting the identity of a real estate agent from a reputable firm or someone related to the agent handling the purchase. The fraudsters forge the identity, email and other important details to create a highly authentic and credible image that can be easily trusted by the buyer or organization. After posing as a credible agent, they scam the buyers with fallacious emails and instructions of wire to a bank account, which belongs to the fraudster. 

Earlier in June, the federal authorities have launched a coordinated law enforcement initiative, WireWire, to take down all BEC schemes that attempt to intercept and hijack wire transfers. In a short period of 6 months, this effort has managed to make 74 arrests, and recovered $14 million from fraudulent wire transfers. However, the risk of being a victim is still looming high above the buyer’s head. 

How can you protect yourself? 

Reports from the FBI reveal that business email scams and compromises have accumulated loss of over $12 billion and the numbers keep growing with every passing day. It is a common practice for fraudsters to hack the buyer’s email account and monitor all the correspondence taking between the buyers and real estate agents. 

The scammers wait until the two parties head towards the transaction, and at the very last moment, they contact the buyer with fake emails to make it appear like the agent is using a different account to ask for a money to be wired to another account. Fraudsters can also hack the email accounts of real estate agents and professionals. So basically, not only your money and your investment are at stake, but more importantly, your personal identity and your personal/financial information linked with your email account are also at risk. 

These wire transfers amount up to a great deal of money, and personal identities and information are also valuable for such scammers. It is important for buyers and real estate agents to adopt a more secure way to communicate and conduct business transactions. Most important, email accounts should be password protected. It is also important to make sure you verify all emails that ask you to wire funds or pay any kind of amount. Be sure to verify all the details and sudden changes by contact your real estate firm or agent on a verified number. 

Have any questions or are you ready to start your new home search in 2019?  Give us a call today!  Kevin and Jennifer Hanley, REALTORS Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners Southside 904-515-2479 http://www.HanleyHomeTeam.com

Ranking Your Home Priorities

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Buying a home is exciting. A new neighborhood. More space. A yard. A shorter commute. There are all kinds of reasons people get amped up to go house hunting online and start dreaming of a new home. But when the market is competitive and sellers have an advantage, finding a home that is truly “perfect” is increasingly hard to do. Sometimes this keeps people from buying, and often excellent opportunities are missed simply because buyers sit on the sidelines hoping for perfection.

On one hand, this makes sense. A home is a huge investment. Why rush into it? You want to get it right. But on the other hand, buyers forget that a home is an investment. People sometimes allow themselves to become blinded by the thought that they’re locked into a home, when in reality a home is often only held for seven to ten years on average. What you want to keep in mind as you shop is how well you’ll do from an investment perspective over time.

Adopting an investment mindset means looking at the prospects of a neighborhood, buying at a fair price, and considering factors which may not even matter to you personally as you shop for a home. Yes, you want to be comfortable. Yes, you want it to have the right layout and enough space for your needs. But you also want to imagine who might buy the home in the future.

Even if a home is not ideal, there are factors you should rank before you make an offer. Savvy investors know these four factors can have a giant impact on price when the time comes to reap a return:

1. Affordability. Look for value. Homes which are below median prices are worth a second look, simply because they allow you to prevent yourself from becoming “house poor” in your mortgage while setting yourself up for a larger return when you sell.

2. Schools. You may not have kids or want kids at the moment, but it’s a fact that good schools will help you sell and bad schools will hurt. Check into the local schools on a website like GreatSchools.com.

3. Transit and walkability. Ditching the car in favor for walkability and public transportation is a plus for a home’s value. How’s shopping and entertainment nearby? Check WalkScore.com.

4. Crime rates. BestPlaces.net will give you some insight into local crime rates. Even if crime rates aren’t ideal, see if there are any trend indications. If they’re going to improve, that could mean money in your pocket in the future.

Need more advice during your home search?  Call our team buyer experts today! Kevin and Jennifer Hanley, REALTORS The Hanley Home Team of Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners Southside 904-515-2479 http://www.HanleyHomeTeam.com

Rent vs Buy – Now vs Later

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If affordability is a concern and you are unsure were you’d like to live in the near future, you may find this article on the hidden long-term cost of renting compelling.  It’s called “The $700,000+ mistake nearly 6 in 10 millennials may make.” You can check out the article here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-700000-mistake-nearly-6-in-10-millennials-may-make-2015-01-22

Renting in the short-term may be your best option, but waiting to buy can have a high cost. For example: “At current rates of appreciation, in 10 years the average home (now priced at $190,000) would be selling for about $249,000. If interest rates return to their historical norm (from over the past 15 years) of 5.6%, a monthly house payment (including mortgage, taxes and insurance) on a $249,000 home would be $1,574 a month, a 52% increase over the $1,037 house payment for a median priced home now.”

If you ever have any questions about home ownership, we are more than happy to help you plan for your future. Kevin and Jennifer Hanley, REALTORS TheHanleyHomeTeam.com 904-515-2479